Donald Trump Regaining Strength in Swing State: Polls

Former President Donald Trump has created some distance in his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona, according to a survey released Tuesday.
The latest poll from Emerson College Polling and RealClearWorld found that Trump leads in Arizona by 2.8 percentage points (50 percent to 47.2 percent), according to the responses of 920 likely voters on September 27 and September 28.
The results are a good sign for Trump, who in mid-September polled much closer to Harris, leading 49 percent to 48 percent. That survey by Emerson College Polling was conducted in the days following Trump and Harris’ first presidential debate on September 10, during which the vice president saw a boost in polling nationwide.
Two other surveys conducted in late September also found the former president ahead in Arizona by a slim majority. In one by InsiderAdvantage, which was conducted on September 29 and September 30, Trump was up 49 percent to 48 percent. In another poll by AtlasIntel, performed from September 20 to September 25, the former president led Harris 50 percent to 49 percent.
Trump had once enjoyed a much clearer lead in Arizona shortly after Harris entered the 2024 race in late July. According to polling from Emerson College/The Hill, in a survey on July 22 and July 23, the former president was up 49 percent to 44 percent. According to tracking from FiveThirtyEight, on August 1, Trump was leading Harris by 2.3 percentage points on average.
The overall race for Arizona and its 11 electoral votes, however, remains tight. Per tracking from FiveThirtyEight, Trump is leading in the Grand Canyon State by 1.5 percentage points on average across statewide polls.
But even the small lead is an improvement for Trump in recent weeks. On September 18, FiveThirtyEight found the candidates tied at 47.1 percent across state polling. On September 1, Harris was up by 0.1 points on average.
FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast puts Arizona in the “toss-up” category along with a handful of other key swing states: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Harris is favored to win Michigan, the seventh battleground contest on high watch, although FiveThirtyEight puts the state in the “lean Democrat” category, meaning the state of play could change in the final weeks of campaigning.
Tracking from RealClearPolling (RCP) also gives Trump a lead in Arizona, finding the former president up 2.1 percentage points on average as of Tuesday. In comparison, per RCP’s tracking, President Joe Biden was ahead by 3 percentage points on average October 1, 2020. Biden went on to win Arizona that election year by less than 11,000 votes.
RCP also considers Arizona’s race a “toss-up,” along with the other six swing states and Minnesota.
Newsweek reached out to Trump and Harris’ campaigns for comment on the Arizona race via email on Tuesday.